In recent days, the global market is positive. First, the speech of the Fed Chairman before the congressmen of the lower house was encouraged by investment bankers and analysts. Another would be: the words that it is rather inclined towards a softer monetary policy, market participants regarded as one hundred percent chance that this month the rate will be reduced by a quarter percentage point.
The US stock market classically responds with an increase in monetary policy decline. An increase in the supply of liquidity and a decrease in its value are expected. The second reason for the positive is the rise in oil prices.
But it turns out that millionaires do not participate in this movement. As follows from the annual World Wealth Report, wealthy clients got rid of investments in stocks and real estate last year, transferring money to cash or their equivalent. Such a phenomenon was noticed by Stanislav Mashagin, general director of the investment partnership Van Der Black.
Stanislav Mashagin CEO, Investment Partnership Van Der Black “I myself am one of those investors. With surprise, we are missing growth in the Russian and American markets. But an experienced investor understands that short-term surges of optimism and liquidity can also play against you. Therefore, there is no reason for excessive optimism. Firstly, because the Fed is cutting a rate for a reason, and expecting problems in the global economy and in world trade, and wants to start treating it, according to Jerome Powell, in some way prophylactically. This is not a positive, it is rather a negative, if you look at the whole picture. Tensions in relations with China and in the Persian Gulf, of course, also do not give grounds to believe that everything in the economy, especially in international trade, will be good. This is negative for the markets, in actual fact. But in the short term, since all the cards lay on the zero, everything is ahead and we grow with the song. ”
Perhaps Russian investors will also start to cash out of foreign securities. The Central Bank proposes to restrict the purchase of shares of companies such as Google, Apple and others, to unqualified investors. It is unlikely that such a measure will help limit risks, said financial analyst Natalya Smirnova.
Natalya Smirnova financial analyst “This, of course, is flattery for our stock market. For some reason, our Central Bank believes that Gazprom is apparently more reliable than Apple. This is a good flattery. I think if we are talking about buying shares of the largest companies in the world that have the largest capitalization, and if we are talking about buying these shares in the most stable currency of the world, that is, the US dollar, then if a person is an unqualified investor, I think, in any case Buying Google and Apple shares will be more stable than buying shares of companies in a developing country like Russia in a currency that is extremely unstable — I mean the ruble, and take all the political risks, including sanctions and economic ones. ”
In cash goes and the largest investment fund in the world. According to Bloomberg, BlackRock advocates some reduction in overall risk for stocks, keeps government bonds in the portfolio and increases cash for investors whose base currency is the dollar.