In trading on the Moscow exchange on Friday, the dollar slipped against the Russian currency, approaching the level of 59 rubles. Analysts predict a further strengthening of the ruble against the dollar to 55-57 rubles. A unique situation, the national currency is growing steadily the past few months, and prices are not going down. Analyst Mobile Research Group of Eldar Murtazin explains that price changes “are not instant in nature and are stretched in time”.
For 2016, the exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar varies, but mostly remained at around 66 rubles per dollar, strengthening occurred at the end of the year and continued in January. To market felt the change of course, according to the analyst, should occur several events, the first and foremost is the understanding that the course goes in a specific direction.
Take, for example, the cost of a new MacBook Pro with Touch panel Bar. In the US it is $1799, in Russia, the price of the laptop is set at around 144 990 rubles. Thus, the difference is about $ 40 000 rubles, or Russian users overpay for the goods about 35%. In estimating the cost of iPhone 7 the difference also appears significant in the US price of $ 649 (38 940 rubles), in Russia — from 56 990 rubles (that is, the difference 18 000 rubles!).
The problem of pricing of Apple in Russia stems from the strengthening of the ruble, which occurred consecutively, says Murtazin. Major manufacturers, including California giant, use currency hedging, which allows to obtain the course that is justified. Hedging is bought on consignment, a specific amount or undertakes the responsibility for a term and specific border trafficking.
“Current hedge bought before may, so price changes can be expected in March-April, then Apple will cut costs on maintenance, they will not be catastrophically high,” – the expert believes.
Another important point that cannot be discounted is the change in the cost of the phones. The shortage of components, price increases led to the fact that in 2016-2017 the cost of the models almost fell. Only last month, the rising cost of memory and displays amounted to an average of about 5-6%. Given the upcoming Chinese New year, we can expect further growth in the value of the components.
Of practice, as only the difference in cost of white and grey phones more than 25-30%, is a sharp flow of demand for the grey market, which is quite understandable. And manufacturers are beginning to react, trying to adjust their prices under the changed conditions, but it takes them months.
However, to expect that in February and March the cost of the electronics in the Russian market will be adjusted downward, on a course change can not be sure Murtazin. The adjustment will be minor, it will reduce the cost in the best case 5-10% depending on brand. On some models the decline in prices can be up to 15-20%, but rather, it speaks hiked the price on them currently.