Spoiler: no tragedy will happen – just perceptible decline in the number of audience.
In the coming months, Telegram in Russia, however, may collapse – the reasons for blocking is already there, and now everything depends on the decision of the authorities. People who have some idea of how the mechanics work of the FSB and Roskomnadzor, explain: ban messenger directly responsible for the administration of the President of the country and the very first person.
If there is already decided to end Telegram, the service is really tablecat. If no – the dialogue will continue, but the threat of a block hanging long: autonomy and demonstrative estrangement of messenger from Russia (with Russian roots) infuriates those who are used to, they all obey.
Pavel Durov is not going to listen to anyone and to bend under anybody. Moreover, the market for it is not the key: on the contrary, in the case of blocking it will be much easier to live, because of the Russian issue is somehow resolved.
Another thing is that we technically lose access objectively the best messenger in the market.
What happens after that? Exactly three things.
First, proxy servers, VPN and see those who without blocking the messenger never came to such methods. It’s one thing when block some small Ukrainian site (Roskomnadzor bans them regularly), and quite another when it was insolently executed favorite, almost folk app.
The recent fall of the Telegram for three and a half hours – the best illustration of how Russia used to it. No WhatsApp, no Viber, no other services can’t replace messenger Durov, therefore, the lock clearly have to go around.
Hence the forecast: first, people will be less sharply by 60 percent (according to the pessimistic version), but then (rather quickly) one-third of the departed will return. Total – a drop of 40%. Not so hopeless.
It is important that the prospects of a proxy and a VPN well aware of and in the Kremlin. Easier to maintain Russia’s Telegram than to prevent the Internet has become much freer than it is now: it is obvious that by the means of the bypass can go not only in messenger, but where simple people would not be reached. So there is a chance to do without locks. It would be great.
Second, alternative messengers have already launched advertising campaign. The loudest lures TamTam project from Mail.ru – there are also chat rooms and channels, but no people. Most likely, these people there will never be a market for busy, no promotion will not help. But, of course, even in TamTam will be bursts of activity, if slocat Telegram. Although it will move all of WhatsApp – there is just right with the audience: was even grandparents.
Thirdly, be silent, no one will. There will be petitions, rallies, pickets, requests and appeals. In short, civil society wakes up. It’s really funny, considering that zero at the end in the Kremlin feared that Pavel Durov will appeal to a huge and relatively young audience VK and pick it up at any riot or natural rally.
Now the opposite is true: the actor wants the banal rights of the Russian Constitution, but the government (and the FSB) so believed in himself that seriously requires a key to decrypt (which, incidentally, does not even exist).
It is logical that such an absurdity makes you want to go out with a poster “Hands off Telegram!”
Wait, than all will end.
PS While Telegram is not blocked, you can subscribe to the channel “the Executioner says” – there are promptly reported on all stages.