Unmanned vehicles will make the biggest revolution in the world of transport. That Apple has already received permission for testing vehicles with Autonomous control systems. It is expected that the Cupertino-based company focused on creating autopilot system, which can be sold to automakers.
After ten years, and the roads of the world will ride 15-20% of unmanned vehicles. This is the conclusion of consulting firm McKinsey Global Institute. The figure is more modest — 13% the Boston Consulting Group. If you imagine that fully-Autonomous cars already on the market, last year, from 93 million sold vehicles unmanned would be 12 million.
Drones – and about Russia. The developers compete in the technologies of Autonomous driving with global giants. The institutes teach the car to drive without a driver. KAMAZ, GAZ, Cognitive Technologies are already showing prototypes. In the edition of Hi-Tech Mail learned how to work on the drones in Russia and found out why the car-robots solve the problem of fools and roads.
As for Cognitive Technologies are taught to drive “Russian autopilot”
Russian unmanned vehicle hiding in the garage of the Institute of systemic analysis in Moscow. Surprised by the contrast. White with blue stickers Nissan X-Trail stands a peasant in the garage, where in a corner lay the tire on the ground — details.
The Japanese crossover has chosen the role of a Russian drone, not only to drive on the road. The Russian automotive industry in the mass, while not suitable for new technologies. “Some machines just the old, cuts off Yuri Minkin, head of drones in Cognitive Technologies. — There is no other electronically controlled pedals, steering wheel and box. The second point: the machine must be large enough to accommodate the equipment needed for the experiment”.
The number of electronics in the car makes me paranoid. If the crossover went from the conveyor to the dystopia of Orwell, to follow the proletariat. Frame for license plate says: “management for the management of all Departments of the Russian Federation”.
Yury Minkin laughs that frame will be replaced by something more modest. His severe facial features, neat glasses and love the exact wording. He organically fit in the Office, but he was only interested in the control of automated systems. This profession he got in the MAI, and then the degree of candidate of technical Sciences. For the development of drones Cognitive Technologies undertook one of the first in Russia, and Minkin became head of the development Department.
On the roof of the crossover of the two cameras, which are responsible for 70% of the “vision” of the machine. The remaining interest gets radars and lidars, which are fixed on the housing. Lidar — rangefinder on about
On the roof of the crossover of the two cameras, which are responsible for 70% of the “vision” of the machine. The remaining interest gets radars and lidars, which are fixed on the housing. Lidar — rangefinder based on laser. It is important when driving in heavy traffic at low speed — animates dead zones and helps in traffic.
Electronic gyroscope sensor and positioning help the drone not to get lost on the map. The interior remains the same, except that the coils wires take up too much space.
“To create a car for a reliable ride in the city much more difficult than for the route — explains Yuri Minkin. Highway — usually in a predictable place. Cars driving behind each other, even travel in ‘opposite’ it is possible to notice quickly.”
Russian drone experienced on the ground and in the city. The computer confidently treated roads: cars, curbs and cones, even cyclists. That is especially important for Russia coped in torrential rain. In Cognitive Technologies they say can only five companies in the world.
Sloppy marking, holes, drifting on the Russian character to computer care. He examines the pixels of road conditions and creates a “virtual tunnel”. If the autopilot detects potholes and running dogs in the German Berlin, you will do it and in the Mordovian village of Mamaeva.
The drones will travel to Russia in 2025
In the future to buy a new car with the autopilot will be cheaper than to upgrade their “swallow”. Yury Minkin encircles token number: “the Proliferation of drones will start from 2025. It is a reality, and for the development, debugging takes years, not decades”.
At first Autonomous cars will be expensive, about two million rubles. Experts believe that half the cost of the car will be digital components. 20% battery. Now this is a very expensive part. When cheaper “filling”, will drop the price of unmanned vehicles.
Having mastered the luxury segment, the drones will go back to the people. A similar path crossed the smartphones are the same and cheap.
Russian car industry is waiting for this and while working on concepts and image projects. Unmanned, and electric, “Gazelle-Next” made at the Gorky automobile plant. Bus “Matryoshka” for the world championship on football-2018 will only be remotely piloted. Great machine on the remote control.
The representative of “AVTOVAZ” Sergey Ilinsky told Hi-Tech Mail.Ru that “work in the field of unmanned technology is, but its components are non-public”. Competitors to decipher: “AVTOVAZ” — the leader of the budget segment, and cheap drone while it is impossible to create. The company will take the specialists of “grow into”.
The finished project is in “KAMAZ” sovmestno with Cognitive Technologies. Unmanned truck passed the light test: “snake”, performed u-turns and determine the objects on the road.
Serial production of “KAMAZ” is scheduled for 2022. They will cost 15-20% more expensive than the current. The company is engaged in driver assistance systems (ADAS) are not only of commercial benefit. “KAMAZ” adapts to the European Union, which will toughen rules of transportation and will be obliged to use ADAS in trucks.
While a big difference in state support. In the United States at the creation of unmanned machine in ten years will spend $ 4 billion. It is about 225,5 billion. The Russian government instructed the Ministry of industry and trade to develop an Autonomous transport by 2035. To work in the next three years, according to “Vedomosti”, has allocated 12 billion roubles. And it’s money on research in four areas: aviation, road and Maritime transport, and Neurotechnology.
Of the company and would be happy to receive subsidies, but too harsh requirements. Need samples of control systems, research and development center and a detailed business plan. And to release the drone should be for five years from the date of signing the contract.
Accidents will be rare
The future of vehicles is comparable with aviation. After each major accident, the Commission gathers and draws conclusions. If blame for the tragedy of the machine, the problem will eliminate in mass.
“Man is not the most optimal ‘device’ management — throws up his hands Minkin. — It can be new, drunk or just in a bad mood. And eventually people learn from their mistakes. Drone teach people, and he learns, and all the cars at once. The same Tesla gets in an accident, but look at the statistics, the industry average: Tesla is the safest car. The drone can be put on the road when it becomes substantially safer than the average driver”.
Autonomous vehicles will reduce accidents to a minimum. According to the world health organization, the victims of road accidents each year, 1.25 million people. In a full automated system the number of casualties will drop to a few hundred. All over the world. In Russia, victims of car accidents will be few.
The driver will steer the city
Autonomous mass transport would appear faster if I worked on it together. Projects are classified, but developers can be divided into two groups.
The majority of designers are upgrading machines, installing systems ADAS. This is the way chosen auto giants like Mercedes, Renault-Nissan, Ford, Volkswagen, Toyota, Audi, BMW, KAMAZ .5
They want to insert UAVs into the existing transport system. On the road cars will drive themselves. Difficult sites in the city, like Parking and traffic jams, even controls the people if the technology is not ready. The main thing for “conservatives” — the safety and justification of investments.
The role of the driver is stored, and the prospects for a system of partial autonomy more clear. Yury Minkin explains this psychology: “Modern planes can fly themselves, but the pilots sitting in the cockpits at the right time to intervene. In trucks, buses man is to sit in the cockpit. To remove the responsibility from the carrier, by law, to well and for calmness of passengers”.
Other developers want to change our understanding of transport. Apple, Google, China’s Baidu, Tesla working on machines with the fifth level of the driver assistance system (ADAS). The fifth and last level is full automation, when car drives itself everywhere.
It works in the global system connected to all machines. As in aviation, where the Manager sees all the planes. In the car with ADAS fifth level, the computer monitors the road and pre-calculates the path, interacting with other drones. Almost certainly in that system will die the concept of the personal car, car sharing will become popular. “Our main goal is to create a safe platform for unmanned movement,” outlined the purpose of John Krepick, Director Waymo, “daughter” of Google.
The laws inhibit the drones
Even if we put aside the laws of specific countries, the Vienna Convention on road traffic requires drivers to constantly monitor the vehicle. Then just the question “Who is to blame for the accident?” moved to California. Amendments to state law will be allowed to test cars without a driver though, at least not without pedals and steering wheel.
Russian developers are jealous of the Americans. “We interact with the state Duma and other authorities, but the process is sluggish, — says Yuri Minkin. — The United States, of course, the leader, but is Silicon valley. Many companies dealing with these technologies, and the government is beneficial [to cooperate]. I hope our government would take note of the designs and will make the relevant change of law”.
“Research has rested on a paradox. Everyone is waiting for the unmanned vehicle to change the law. And to create a drone needs tests, which are prohibited by law.”
Unmanned vehicles are afraid, because we have for too long been taught to follow the road and not to take your hands off the wheel. The autopilot will change our view on the movement: protect from bugs and give free time. While it is too expensive privilege, but drones will become cheaper in the next ten years. The enormous distances in Russia will contribute to the dissemination of the autopilot. There is time to figure out what to do with myself on the road.